You’ve laid out the case absolutely correctly. But let me throw in one more consideration. You don’t want to do a conversion and pay the taxes at the “TOP” of the market. Think how horrible you’d feel if your account dropped 20 percent in a bear market –and you could convert later, and pay less taxes! (In the “olden days” you could reverse that decision and “recharacterize” the Roth conversion — but no longer.)
So now were must be coming to the end of an 11 year historic bull market. Don’t you want to wait a bit to do the conversion perhaps at a lower value for your account? Just throw that into the mix when you make your decision!