Do you think you can beat the stock market? Should you even try? The volatility of the stock market in the past month has demonstrated the overall futility of just “guessing” what the market will do next.

Yet lately I have noticed a surge of television commercials and email solicitations, suggesting that some well-known personalities have the “key” to beating the stock market. Their “systems” have “triggered” some sort of buy (or sell) warning that is a “unique opportunity” to act to make big money!

Combine that aggressive approach with the rise of an investing generation that grew up playing online games that reward quick actions, and you have a recipe for sharp swings and huge volume – and big losses.

Level-headed professional approach?
Of course, Wall Street is not ruled by individual trading bets. But even the professionals have difficulty beating the stock market on a consistent basis. S&P recently released its analysis of investment management performance for the full year of 2025. The shocking headline: 79% of all active large-cap U.S. equity funds underperformed the S&P 500!

Think about it. These are the professional mutual fund managers, who are paid a small fortune and have research assistants to help them choose large-company stocks that would outperform their benchmark S%P 500 stock index. Yet, they failed dismally.

And 2025 wasn’t the only year in which the pros failed to beat the market. In 2024, 65% failed to beat the market. In fact, going all the way back to 2010, more than half of large cap money managers underperformed the S&P 500. And in 2021, the year of Covid, a whopping 85% failed to beat the market.

That should give you pause. Sure, there are some legendary money managers who have outperformed the averages – over the long run. Consider the track record of Warren Buffett. His Berkshire Hathaway portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 50 years, with gains averaging 32%, compared to 19% for the index.

BUT – and this is significant – Buffett faced some years with huge losses. His portfolio fell 44% in the dot-com crash, and sustained a 40% loss in 2008. Most ordinary investors would have panicked, selling something to make themselves feel better. Beyond Buffet’s gift for picking stocks with long-term investment value, his self-discipline and self-confidence have contributed greatly to his long-run successful performance.

Oh yes, and today Buffett (who recently retired from managing the portfolio, but still advises) has accumulated roughly $340 billion in cash inside the Berkshire portfolio. In recent interviews, Buffett has denied “giving up” on the market – but indicated he feels there will be a better price level at which to use his cash.

The lesson here: Even the man who has “beat the market” over the long run is concerned about current price/value levels.

Confusing the Professionals
The best of the professionals – those not touting a system to “beat” the market – admit that it’s almost impossible to outguess the market these days. This from the esteemed David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research:

“So, the stock market rallies on this view that more rounds of discussions are coming our way. This is the definition of a hope-based market, but what was interesting is the inverse relationship between the oil price and S&P 500, which has now retraced all of its war damage and is modestly up for the year . . . I continue to question if this is really an investable or even tradeable market when all it takes is a news item to either generate a wave of exuberance or a complete reversal.”

Rosenberg is not alone in his concern with the volatility and news-based nature of the current stock market. Jim Stack of Investech Research (www.Investech.com) in his latest report to clients makes his warning clear: “While any resolution to the Iran conflict –whether temporary or permanent– will undoubtedly fuel a rally in market indexes, the internal stock market risk extends far beyond this conflict.”

Stack actually did beat the market in the first quarter, thanks in part to a healthy allocation to gold stocks and a defensive inverse bear fund position. Stack has been at this for 31 years, with a winning track record, but he now says: “The potential losses in a bear market could easily range between -35% and -63%. Consequently, it is not a time to take portfolio risk management lightly.”

There’s an old Wall Street saying: “The market always embarrasses the greatest number of people.”
Seems to me that when the final numbers for 2026 are in, a lot of “smart money” is going to be in the red – both their faces and their accounts. And that’s The Savage Truth.