Terry’s Columns History Says Americans Overloaded in Stocks

History Says Americans Overloaded in Stocks

By Terry Savage on September 17, 2024

Famed market commentator Dennis Gartman no longer writes a daily letter. But when he sends out a special bulletin, I pay attention.
Today, September 13, 2024, Gartman highlighted stock market history in a very long-term perspective:

“I’ve included here today a chart created by the good people at JPMorgan Chase detailing the level of public participation in the US’ stock market. It shows the percentage of total “financial assets” that the public holds in equities and it is now at the highest level in modern history, post-World War II.
The “Public” presently holds 42% of its “financial assets” in equities and that is well above the previous peak of 38% gotten to in late 1999 just before the high-tech crash of 2000-2002. During that seemingly relentless bear market the publics’ holdings of equities fell to a mere 18% of their total financial assets. The bear market was devastating.
Prior to that peak, the previous peak was 30% arrived at in the late 60’s just prior to the bear market that reached its bottom in ’74. During that period of relentless liquidation the then popular Dow Industrials fell from just over 1,000 to its low near 475 in the summer of ‘74 and the publics’ holding of equities fell to just below 10% in the early 80’s.
What then are we to learn from these two history lessons? We are to learn that when the public is in we should want out and secondly we are to learn that when the liquidation phase begins in earnest it shall take years of selling to get the public out and send them to the sidelines, bereft and swearing off investment just at the time they should be the most bullish

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